Concern About a Resurgence of Black Lung Disease

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By Kim Smiley 

Did you know that black lung disease has killed 70,000 coal miners since 1970?  Despite regulations designed to protect them, modern coal miners still face very real danger from coal dust.  Changes to the mining industry seem to be exacerbating this long standing issue.

Black lung disease, as coal workers’ pneumoconiosis is colloquially known, is caused by inhalation of coal dust, but there is more to the issue that needs to be understood.  The problem of miners suffering from black lung disease can be analyzed by building a Cause Map, a visual root cause analysis.  Cause Maps lay out the different causes that contribute to an issue visually to illustrate the cause-and-effect relationships.   (To view a high level Cause Map of this issue, click on “Download PDF” above.)

Coal dust is dangerous because it accumulates in the lungs and can cause long-term lung damage and breathing difficulties.  It is irreversible and there is no proven effective treatment.  Death can occur in severe cases.  The only option to fight this disease is prevention.

Black lung disease has a long history and concern about it first came to head in the 1960s.  A strike by 40,000 West Virginia coal miners pushed passage of the Federal Coal Mine Health and Safety Act of 1969.  This legislation limited coal dust exposure to 2 milligrams per cubic meter of air, which was significantly less than most miners were being exposed to at that time.  At first it seemed that the limits were effective in dramatically limiting black lung disease, but some are now worried about a resurgence of the disease.

Some speculate that changes in the mining industry are putting miners at greater risk for black lung disease.  The more dust that miners inhale, the greater the health risk and miners are both working longer hours and using equipment that potentially creates more dust.   The average workweek grew 11 hours since the 1970s which means miners are potentially exposed to dust for hundreds of more hours each year.  Technological advances have resulted in mining technology that is more powerful and can cut through coal faster, which can result in more dust.  The amount of coal produced per hour of work has nearly tripled since the 1970s.  These changes make it more challenging to prevent inhalation of dangerous levels of coal dust.  Increase in demand as well as the rising price of coal has driven these changes because it’s profitable to mine coal as quickly as possible.  Miners are also willing to work in the evolving conditions because mining provides a better living than other jobs available.

One of the most alarming pieces of evidence that cases of black lung may be increasing came from autopsies of the 29 miners killed in the blast at the Upper Big Branch mine in 2010.  The medical examiner was able to test tissue from 24 of the victims’ lungs and he found that 71% of those tested had black lung disease, a truly distressing percentage.  Some of the miners were relatively young and had a limited amount of time on the job.

There is no clear agreement on the best way to prevent black lung disease.  People are still trying to bound the problem and understand how significant the issue is.  But working to understand the problem is always the best first step to trying to solve it.

Health Risks to Young Athletes

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By Kim Smiley

Deaths and serious injuries of young athletes make headlines every year.  So how do we ensure that participation in sports is as safe as possible?  The first step is to determine what is causing the deaths and understanding the factors involved.

The serious health risks to young athletes can be analyzed by building a Cause Map, an intuitive format for performing a root cause analysis.  A Cause Map visually lays out all the causes that contribute to an issue to show the cause-and-effect relationships to help illustrate the problem.  According to experts, some of the serious health threats to young athletes are sudden cardiac arrest, heat stroke and concussions.

The potential for concussions, especially in the more physical contact sports, has been getting a lot of attention in the media lately, but the most common cause of death of young athletes is sudden cardiac arrest.  Most cases of sudden cardiac arrest are caused by pre-existing heart conditions and the heart breaking part is that most of these are detectable and treatable.   Most of the heart conditions that cause sudden, unexpected death have few symptoms and can’t be found by a typical sports physical done in the US.  About two-thirds of the dangerous heart defects could be found by an electrocardiogram or EKG test, but these are not routinely done in the US.  The main factor preventing EKGs is the cost, which is not always covered by insurance.  Sudden cardiac arrest is also a risk that many people don’t know a lot about.

Concussions are also a risk for athletes of any age.  Concussions can have long term health consequences and occur when brain cells are damaged.  Concussions are mainly caused by impact to the head, but can also be caused by sudden jolts to the body that cause the brain to hit the inside of the skull.  Impacts during contact sports are a well-known cause of concussions, but typical sports activities like heading a soccer ball can also cause concussions.  Wearing the appropriate safety gear can help prevent concussions.  The rules of some sports also limit the more dangerous plays like helmet to helmet tackles in football.

Another significant risk to young athletes is heat stroke.  Heat stroke is usually preventable, but is still a significant risk and can cause death in extreme causes.  Heat stroke occurs when the internal temperature of the body rises above safe levels.  Young athletes are susceptible to heat stroke because many sports practice outside in hot weather. The typical modern, air conditioned life style increases the risk of heat stroke because athletes are generally less acclimated to the heat at the start of the season.  Athletes are most likely to suffer from heat stroke during the first few days of practice in hot temperatures. Gradually increasing workouts in warm temperatures to allow athletes to acclimate to the weather has been very effective at preventing heat stroke. For example, heat stroke rates dramatically decreased after the NCAA limited practice to three hours once a day for the first five days.

How quickly treatment is administered can also dramatically change the outcomes if an athlete is injured.  Quick action by trained personnel with the appropriate equipment can save lives.  According to a recent New Times Times article, only about 40 percent of high schools in the United States have a certified athletic trainer on staff and only about 70 percent have an automatic external defibrillator (AED).  AEDs are important because they can improve the chance for survival after sudden cardiac arrest by 60 percent or more.

So what is the best way to keep our young athletes safe?  This is a matter of lively debate.  Some people believe that the right answer is to require EKGs during pre-participation physicals, but the cost of performing EKGs on the 7.7 million high school athletes in the US is not trivial.  There is also the issue that EKGs, like most diagnostic tests, are not perfect and produce some false positives that would require more testing that raises costs.  Some believe the money could be better spent by hiring more trainers and buying more AEDs.  The answers aren’t simple, but the better we understand the problem the more informed the decisions will be.

Mom’s Saliva May Boost Infants’ Immune Systems

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A recent study found that “cleaning” a baby’s pacifier by sucking on it may actually have some lasting health benefits.  Researchers determined that babies given pacifiers exposed to their parents’ saliva developed fewer allergies.  It’s still not clear whether the benefits come from the actual oral cleaning of the pacifier or if this was just a marker of parents who had a more laid back approach to cleanliness, but scientists are finding increasing evidence that some exposure to more microbes early in life results in fewer allergies.

A Cause Map, a visual format for performing a root cause analysis, can be used to illustrate this issue.  A Cause Map intuitively shows the causes that contributed to an issue as well as the cause-and-effect relationships between them.  In this example, researchers found that infants whose parents cleaned their pacifiers by sucking on them, rather than by boiling or rinsing with tap water, had lower rates of eczema, fewer signs of asthma and smaller amounts of a type of white blood cell that rises in response to allergies.  The key seems to be that saliva contains traces of the parents’ gut microflora.  The infant’s immune system is stimulated by this exposure to their parents’ microflora and this seems to help prevent allergies, which are caused by the immune system responding to harmless inhaled or ingested proteins.  The study also found that children who are delivered vaginally develop fewer allergies than those who are born via cesarean, which limits exposure to bacteria during birth.

These findings are important because the percentage of the population in industrialized nations suffering from allergies has risen rapidly in the 20th century.  Currently, about a third of the children in affluent countries are affected by allergies.  Studies, such as this one, are being done to try and determine what is causing the increase in allergies but the causes are not definitively known yet.  Circumstantial evidence seems to point to lack of exposure to microbes in early childhood as a risk factor.  This study was relatively small and more research on a larger scale will need to be done, but it is beginning to seem that children who get a little dirty and put a few questionable things in their mouths actually benefit from the exposure.

So if you had a mom who cleaned stuff (and you…) with her spit, you have one more reason to thank her this Mother’s Day.  Or if you were that type of mom you have one less reason to feel guilty.

Check out our previous blog – Amish have few allergies

Study Finds that Fukushima Fallout is Affecting Babies in US

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A recent study found that babies born on the West Coast of the United States shortly after the Fukushima nuclear reactor meltdown have a higher rate of congenital hypothyroidism than those born a year earlier.  Thyroid issues have long been known to be associated with exposure to radiation and this finding feeds worries about the long term and long distance impact of the reactor disaster.

This issue can be analyzed by building a Cause Map, a visual root cause analysis, which intuitively lays out all the causes that contributed to an issue.  A Cause Map is built by asking “why” questions and adding the answers to the Cause Map to show the cause-and-effect relationships.

Why has the rate of congenital hypothyroidism increased?  This happened because the infants had radioactive iodine in their thyroids and radioactive iodine may affect the functioning of the thyroid if ingested.  If the thyroid doesn’t function properly, it can’t make the necessary hormones for healthy development and both growth and development can be stunted. The impacts of radioactive iodine are predominantly seen in the thyroid because ingested iodine concentrates in the thyroid where it is used to produce hormones.  The body can’t distinguish between stable and radioactive isotopes of iodine and it will store whatever iodine is available so ingested radioactive iodine can be kept within the body long enough to cause damage.

In the cases of fetuses, the mother passes iodine to her baby.  If pregnant woman ingests radioactive iodine, some of it will likely end up in the thyroid of her baby who needs the iodine to develop properly.  In this example, pregnant women on the West Coast were exposed to significantly higher than normal levels of iodione-131 following the Fukushima meltdown. Iodione-131 is a fission product that is created in a nuclear reactor when atoms are split.  When the reactor containment failed, radioactive isotopes of iodine were released into the environment along with other fission products.  Winds carried some of the radiation across the Pacific Ocean. Iodine-131 concentrations in precipitation in the United States were up to 211 times above normal in the days following the accident.  Some of this radioactive iodine found its way into the food supply and was ingested by people, some of them pregnant women causing the increase in cases of congenital hypothyroidism.

The good news is that congenital hypothyroidism with can be treated if found early.  The bad news is that there may be more health issues from the Fukushima meltdown in places outside of Japan discovered in the future.  The reality is that more than two years after the event we still don’t know what all the impacts of the radiation will be, both in Japan which has obviously suffered the most and in other countries.

 

 

FDA Inspections Find Issues at Compounding Pharmacies

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Unsafe practices at compounding pharmacies were found during recent Federal Drug Agency (FDA) inspections.  The FDA visited about 30 pharmacies in 18 different states, focusing on the production of sterile drugs which was determined to be the highest risk to patient safety.   The inspection findings include a number of potential contamination issues such as inadequate ventilation, unidentified particles in vials of supposedly sterile medications, cleanliness issues in clean rooms such as rust and mold, and insufficient microbiological testing. Interest in compounding pharmacies was increased after the fall 2012 outbreak of fungal meningitis that killed 50 and sickened hundreds was traced back to compounded injectable steroid medication that had been shipped across the country.

A root cause analysis of the issues at compounding pharmacies can be done by building a Cause Map.  A Cause Map visually lays out the different causes that contribute to an issue and is a way to intuitively illustrate the problem.  Compounding medications are an issue because they can pose both indirect and direct risks to patient safety and patients are using them.   The indirect risk is that patients may inadvertently use an ineffective medication.  Compounded medications are not regulated by the FDA and have not gone through a formal approval process that requires extensive testing.  Medications that are compounded can also be a direct risk to patient safety if they are contaminated or sub- or super-potent.  As the fatal fungal meningitis outbreak unfortunately demonstrated, contamination of supposedly sterile drugs can have deadly consequences. Compounded drugs are receiving more attention than traditionally manufactured drugs because some of the facilities may have less oversight and the recent investigations found more issues with the work processes at the compounding pharmacies than is typically discovered at drug manufacturing facilities.

Many are asking questions about how compounding pharmacies are regulated and overseen.  Compared to drug manufacturers, the FDA’s regulatory authority over compounding pharmacies is limited.  Compounding pharmacies are not generally even required to inform the FDA what drugs they are making or register with the FDA.  State boards of pharmacy regulate the compounding pharmacies and the FDA typically becomes involved only to do for-cause inspections upon receiving reports or complaints or when states have requested assistance.

It’s worth noting that compounding pharmacies do serve an important need.  Some individuals cannot be treated with standard manufactured medication.  An example of this is when somebody is allergic to an inactive ingredient, such as a dye, in an approved medication.  The real concern is that the creation and  use of compounded medications seems to be changing from its traditional function.  According to Ilisa Bernstein, acting director of Center for Drug Evaluation and Research’s Office of Compliance, “Some aspects of these firms’ operations appear more consistent with those of drug manufacturers than with those of traditional pharmacies. Some firms make large amounts of drugs that appear to be copies of FDA-approved, commercially available drugs when it does not appear that there is a medical need for an individual patient to receive a compounded version of the drug.”

There have been a number of voluntarily recalls as a result of the recent inspections.  The FDA and state regulatory boards are working together to address the issues that were uncovered.  Additionally, the FDA is pushing for new legislative authority over the highest-risk compounding pharmacies, but there isn’t agreement on whether changes are necessary and it’s not clear what the outcome will be.

For more information about compounded medications, please visit the FDA website.

Successful Emergency Response to Boston Bombing

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The successful activation of emergency plans allowed 8 hospitals in the Boston area to treat 144 trauma patients injured in the bombings that occurred April 15, 2013 near the finish line of the Boston Marathon.  Even with that heavy burden, these hospitals ensured the continued safety of patients and staff during a very unsure time, as well as assisting the police and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) with the ongoing investigation.

While details on the bombings themselves are still being determined and disseminated, it’s apparent that emergency planning and preparedness processes within the area Boston hospitals were successful in allowing an ‘unprecedented’ response.  We can view the response to the bombings by the area hospitals in what we like to call a root cause “success” analysis.  After all, lessons can be learned not only from what didn’t go well, but also what did.  Hospitals around the country can learn from the response by the Boston area hospitals to this trauma.

When Massachusetts General asked hospital staff from Israel, who unfortunately see this kind of trauma on a far more regular basis, to give emergency response training they likely did not suspect their hospital to be the site of a horrific mass trauma like that experienced in Boston.  The hospital’s experience with war-style trauma was certainly extremely helpful in dealing with the aftermath of this kind of trauma, rarely seen outside of war zones.  As Dr. Ron Walls, the chairman of the Department of Emergency Medicine at Brigham and Women’s Hospital stated, “For many, many people in emergency medicine who are practicing domestically and not in the military, these are once-in-a-lifetime events.”

For once-in-a-lifetime events, facilities have to hope that the training and education they’ve provided to their staff, and the processes that they’ve developed for dealing with emergencies, can stand up to the tragedy.  In this case, these Boston hospitals (once they have time to take a breath, which may not be for a while), should give themselves a pat on the back for their amazing handling of a tragic event.  Hospitals elsewhere should take note and ensure that their emergency procedures will allow the same sort of successful response.

A pat on the back should also go out to the staff in the medical tent at the finish line, whose quick actions and extensive equipment allowed on-scene stabilization and quick transfer of the severely injured to the area hospitals.  Lastly, the many spectators who kept their cool and assisted on scene should also be commended.

To view the Outline and Cause Map, please click “Download PDF” above.  Or click here to learn more about the emergency procedures at Massachusetts General.

Lead Poisoning Still An Issue for US Children

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by Kim Smiley

Lead poisoning has once again hit the news with scary headlines such as “Blood Lead Levels High In 535,000 Kids In The USA” and “Despite Big Progress, Many Kids Have High Lead Levels in Blood“.   But what do these articles actually mean in context?  What does “many kids” refer to and how alarmed should we be?

A tool like a Cause Map, a visual method for performing a root cause analysis, can be useful to analyze issues like this one.   The first step in the Cause Mapping process is to define the problem and that alone can help clarify an issue.   Part of defining the problem is to determine which overall organizational goals are being impacted by the problem.   In this example, it becomes clear that there are really two different, but related goals that need to be considered.  The most basic goal is the safety goal.  The safety goal is being impacted because children are still being negatively impacted by exposure to lead in the United States, despite decades of work to dramatically reduce lead in the environment.  The second issue is that 2.6% of children in the US have blood lead levels (BLLs)  higher than the levels set by the Center for Disease and Control (CDC), an impact to the regulatory goal.

It’s clear why exposure to lead remains a concern. Ingestion of lead is dangerous, especially to small children. High levels of lead in the body can have severe and immediate consequences such as coma, convulsions and even death.  Lower levels of lead have been shown to cause lower IQs, behavior issues, hearing problems and a number of problems in organs in the body.  Problems with lead exposure are well known and the use of lead has been dramatically reduced.  Use of lead in household paints, one of the most common sources of ingested lead, was banned in 1978.  However, paint is still one of the primary sources of lead contamination because many children live in houses built before 1978.  Paint chips containing lead can still be an issue, especially if an older house has loose paint or is undergoing a renovation.  Use of lead in gasoline, a common source of soil contamination, was phased out by the end of the 1980s.

The second issue of concern is that 2.6% of children have blood lead levels above the limit set by the CDC.  What does this mean?  If this problem is hitting headlines, are things getting worse?  One important piece of data is that the CDC lowered the limit for young children in 2012 to 5 µg/dL from 10 µg/dL.  Why was the limit lowered?  The limit was lowered because no amount of lead has been determined to be safe for young children and less lead is always better.  The new limit of 5 µg/dL was based on lead levels in the 2.5% of children with the highest levels.  It was a way to target the children most at risk and it marked a shift towards a more prevention-based approach.

Is it okay that 2.6% of children still have blood lead levels above the target?  Of course not.  Is there still work to do in preventing lead exposure?  Many people believe there is.  But the alarming headlines may not tell the whole story.  Here are some other facts that help put the issue of lead exposure in historical context: an estimated 88% of children aged 1 to 5 had blood lead levels at or above 10 mcg/dL from 1976 to 1980; from 1991-1994 it was 4.4% , from 1999-2002 it was 1.6% and it dropped to 0.8% in 2007-2010.    Lead exposure is a still an issue, but it’s an issue that has been drastically improved.

To view a Cause Map of this issue, click on “Download PDF” above.  For more information, click here to visit the CDC’s information page about lead.

 

Reuse of Insulin Pens May Have Spread Hepatitis

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After a similar incident at a Veterans hospital, a hospital in New York reviewed its insulin injection procedures and discovered that insulin pens may have been used for more than one patient.  Re-use of insulin pens for more than a single patient carries a small risk of cross-contamination, which can result in a patient being infected with a communicable disease, such as hepatitis B, hepatitis C, or HIV.

The hospital notified 1,915 patients who had received injections between November  2009 and January 2013 of the possibility for contamination and recommended testing.  Twelve patients have tested positive for Hepatitis C, and one has tested positive for Hepatitis B, though an investigation is ongoing to determine if this is related to the injections.

The use of insulin pens resulted in 30 outbreaks from syringe or needle reuse over ten years, from 2001-2010. So, although the possibility for cross-contamination is considered low, the risk for the spreading of communicable diseases is unacceptably high.

The potential for spreading communicable diseases is an important impact to the patient safety and environmental goals.  We can examine these impacted goals and the cause-and-effect relationships that led to these impacts, in a Cause Map, or visual root cause analysis.

We begin by defining the impacts to the goals.  In addition to the patient safety goal, the compliance goal is impacted because re-using insulin pens is against recommendations by the FDA and CDC.  The organizational goal is  impacted due to a lawsuit from the patients who have tested positive for Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C.  Patient services are impacted due to the improper reuse of the insulin pens, and the labor and property goals are impacted by the additional follow-up, testing and potential treatment for the almost 2,000 patients affected.  Once we have determined the impacts to an organization’s goals, we can ask “Why” questions, which helps develop cause-and-effect relationships that resulted in these impacts.

Insulin pens are designed for multiple injections, meaning that there is stored insulin within the cartridge after a single injection is given.  Backflow of blood into the pen can result in the remaining insulin being contaminated.  This can result in the spread of communicable disease if the pen is then used on a different patient for subsequent injections.

Because it is known that insulin pens should not be used on multiple patients, it is evident that there was an issue with the procedure or policy regarding use of insulin pens.  It is unclear what the specific issues were relating to this incident, but the hospital involved has reviewed and reinforced policies and procedures related to insulin injection.

Many facilities, including the hospital discussed here, which discovered the potential for re-use during a review after a similar incident at a Veteran’s hospital, have discontinued the use of insulin pens due to the potential for cross-contamination.

To view the Outline and Cause Map, please click “Download PDF” above.  Or click here to read the hospital’s press release.

Click here to visit our previous blog about about hepatitis B and C.

Click here to visit our previous blog about a different contamination issue involving hepatitis C.

 

Rabies From Donated Kidney Kills Recipient

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A kidney donation recipient died in February, 2013.  It was determined that his death was due to rabies – specifically rabies that had been transferred with the donated kidney during the transplant in September 2011.  Although infectious disease transmission through transplant – especially rabies – is rare, there is benefit in visually diagramming a root cause analysis of this event in a Cause Map.   A Cause Map begins with the specific impacts to an organization’s goals resulting from an incident, and shows the cause-and-effect relationships that led to those impacts.

In this case, the patient safety goal was impacted due to the recipient death.  The receipt of organs infected with a disease such as rabies is an impact to the patient services goal.  Three other recipients also received organs from the same donor but have not shown symptoms of rabies.    Their treatment is an impact to the property and labor goals, due to the cost, time and inconvenience of those treatments.

The impacted goals form the first cause-and-effect relationship in our Cause Map.  We ask “Why” questions to determine other cause-and-effect relationships.  In this case, the donor death was due to rabies.  The donor was infected with rabies from an infected transplanted organ, and was not treated for rabies.  The recipient was not treated for rabies as the symptoms did not emerge until a year after the transplant (rabies can have a long incubation period).  The donor organs were infected with rabies from an unknown cause, though rabies usually results from contact with wild animals (specifically, this strain of rabies appears to be from a raccoon).   The transplant medical team was unaware that the donor had rabies.

Though the donor had encephalitis, it was thought that it was due to a food-borne illness.  (Detail on how the diagnosis was obtained has not been released.)  While there is testing for certain diseases performed on donor organs, due to the time constraints on the viability of the organ, testing for rabies is not generally performed.  However, new guidance from the Disease Transmission Advisory Committee (put out after this donation occurred) urges caution in use of organs from donors with encephalitis, perhaps including more robust testing for specific illnesses, or using only certain organs.

Due to an acute shortage of viable donated organs, some believe that organs from disease-positive donors should be used, and treatment started immediately.  With many in need of transplants dying on the waiting list, this may be a more practical approach, though there are certainly concerns about transmitting diseased organs to those who are already very ill, and who will be taking immune suppressing drugs to prevent rejection of transplanted organs, making them more susceptible to such diseases.

To view the Outline and Cause Map, please click “Download PDF” above.

Read our previous blog about a recipient who died of lung cancer after receiving the lungs of a heavy smoker

US Stockpiles Smallpox Medicine, Fear of Bioterrorism

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The last case of smallpox in the United States occurred in 1949, but the government recently made headlines for spending $463 million on enough medicine to treat two million people infected with the disease.  It is feared that the deadly and disfiguring disease could be used by bioterrorists and the government wanted to be prepared in the event of an attack.

The concern that smallpox could be used for bioterrorism can be analyzed by building a Cause Map, a visual root cause analysis.  The first step is to fill in an Outline with the background information for the problem and determine which goals are impacted.  In this example, the safety goal is impacted because there is a chance of many deaths if smallpox is released, the financial goal is impacted because hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on treatment for smallpox and the customer service goal is impacted because people are nervous about the potential for smallpox bioterrorism.  Once the impacts to the goals are determined, the Cause Map is built by asking “why” questions.

Why is there a potential for many deaths?  This is true because there is the potential that a smallpox outbreak could happen, many are unprotected against smallpox, and smallpox is a very deadly, highly contagious disease.  An outbreak could occur if bioterrorists released smallpox because the virus still exists in research labs in the US and Russia.  Advances in the genetic field have also opened the possibility that the smallpox virus could be  re-engineered and essentially created in a lab anywhere in the world.   Many people are unprotected against smallpox because the vaccination program ended in 1980 when it was eradicated.  People vaccinated prior to 1980 likely maintain some level of protection from smallpox, but the effectiveness of the vaccine degrades over time and they are no longer fully protected.  Smallpox is a very dangerous disease because it has fatality rate of about 30% and many survivors are left blind or disfigured.  It’s also very contagious and can be spread without direct contact because it can be transmitted via aerosolized droplets from saliva and other body fluids.

The financial goal is also worth considering.  Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent to prepare for a potential smallpox attack.  The government has long stockpiled smallpox vaccines in the event they were needed, but the move to buy medicine to treat the disease is fairly recent and substantially more expensive than just buying vaccines.  This option has only recently been a possibility because there was no treatment for smallpox until now.  A private company developed antiviral medicine to treat smallpox in the hope that it would be profitable.

Developing solutions to problems that might occur is always tricky and likely to cause debate.  There are many reasons why a smallpox bioterrorism attack is frightening, but how much money should the US government spend to prepare for an attack?    How much preparation is enough?  There is no simple answer, but it’s important to understand these types of problems to the best of our ability to help make well thought out and reasonable decisions.

To view a high level Cause Map of this problem, click on “Download PDF” above.